The North American Free Trade Agreement in the Age of Trump: A partial victory for facts over post-t

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to renegotiate or “tear up” the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or what he has consistently referred to as “the worst trade deal in history” and a “disaster,” among other harsh words, for the United States, particularly for working class Americans. However, the latter aggressive language over one of the most critical aspects of Canada’s relationship with the United States now seems to be going below the radar of the Trump administration. On April 26, President Trump decided to “not terminate NAFTA at this time” through an executive order calling for US withdrawal, following a diplomatic meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and President Enrique Pena Nieto of Mexico. This US presidential announcement took place after a rather hostile decision by the US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross to impose a three to 24 per cent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber and other products from the country’s forestry industry in response to alleged dumping into the US.

Along with softwood lumber, the Canadian dairy supply management system has been criticized as unfair to American dairy farmers under the NAFTA by President Trump. When put into perspective with Trump’s campaign stance, these two policy messages appear to be a divisive method to begin negotiations with Canada and Mexico for a more pro-US trade agreement, according to the Globe and Mail’s Adrian Morrow. At the same time, there are potential risks of a trade war being unleashed, such as how Premier Christy Clark, whose provincial economy of British Columbia contains a large stake in softwood lumber, is calling for tariffs on US coal imports to the province. In another sense, with Trump’s decision to refrain from a US withdrawal, one may consider this as a partial victory of fact-based policymaking over the post-truth political world personified by Donald Trump’s administration.

During an interview with Bloomberg News on April 20, Prime Minister Trudeau noted that “the US has a $400 million dairy surplus with Canada.” This and his general hope to resolve the issues underlying Canada-US trade through the facts were also laid out at that interview, and in his most recent act of Canada-US diplomacy. Furthermore, congressional Republicans, Trump’s advisors and the US Chamber of Commerce have urgently highlighted the massive economic consequences of withdrawing from NAFTA in its entirety. On the more political side of things, this revised NAFTA stance is reportedly being considered as something to show for his 100-day “America First” campaign promises to his supporters, as he reaches his 100th day in office on April 28, 2017. </p>

In Canada, lumber industry representatives have challenged US accusations of dumping, while some members of Trudeau’s cabinet have noted independent trade panels will rule in their favour, based on past decisions that have found no evidence of softwood dumping practices. Moreover, any NAFTA negotiation will include ensuring a settlement that positively serves the Canadian softwood industry. In addition, as stated by Prime Minister Trudeau in the Bloomberg interview, NAFTA alongside broader trade activities that Canada engages in should be inclusive of the entire country, and n

ot in terms of ‘winners and losers’ as seen by President Trump with trade and other issues affecting the US